Extend-and-pretend in CRE lending has been a growing problem, surging to $35.5 billion amid rising defaults, according to a recent CRED iQ analysis.
Now, a new analysis from CBRE shows that for office specifically, extend-and-pretend has masked a serious office debt-funding gap — $131 billion over the next four years. This is nearly 25% of all office debt originated between 2017 and 2023 and coming due between 2025 and 2028.
Determining an estimate of the gap was difficult as lender forbearance over the last two years complicated the calculation of current debt-funding gaps. But CBRE put together a series of data sources that let them calculate an estimate.
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