Maturity waves in commercial real estate loans are building, according to CRED iQ, which looked at securitized CRE loans, including CMBS conduit trusts, single-borrower large-loan securitizations, CRE collateralized loan obligations, and multifamily mortgages securitized through government-sponsored entities.
This year alone is scheduled to see about $277 billion in these loans mature, with another $163 billion maturing in 2026, so a total of $440 billion through 2026. Then it’s $129 billion in 2027, $181 billion in 2028, and $211 billion in 2029.
In September 2024, JLL estimated a $1.5 trillion maturity wall through 2025, while S&P Global Capital IQ expected $998 billion to hit maturity in 2025. The bulk of differences in estimates are likely due to different methodologies. JLL’s figure through the end of 2025 came out with more than a quarter left in 2024 — about 16 months total rather than 12 and figures not limited to securitized loans.
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