Last month, Trepp looked at CMBS market shifts from 2019 to 2024 and how they interacted with economic conditions, borrower preferences, and lender strategies. Looking ahead to 2025, they said that the significant number of CMBS loan maturities this year could mean potential for issuance growth.
But a new Trepp report — “CMBS Maturity Wave in 2025: What It Means for Issuance & Refinancing” — states that while a “substantial portion of CMBS issuance” won’t be due to CMBS maturities, refinancing will affect whether or not the market will top last year’s $108 billion total.
This year should see an average of about $150.9 billion in CMBS maturities, with months varying from $10.0 billion to $17.9 billion. The maturities are largely concentrated in Q1 and Q4 of 2025, the firm said, but then added that in total the first and fourth quarters account for almost half of maturing CMBS loan volume. This feels a bit off as an observation because you might expect two quarters, which would make half a year, in an even distribution to comprise about 50% of the activity.
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