There have been ongoing concerns and confusion about the future of the economy and, therefore, commercial real estate. Earlier talk of a likely soft landing has morphed into extensive uncertainty.
That has extended into three categories of market activities that suggest a growing possibility of a recession later this year. Not a promise and not necessarily a probability greater than 50%, but enough to be concerned. Moody’s Analytics told ABC News that it had raised the probability of a recession to 35%, Goldman Sachs increased its projection from 15% to 20%, according to Reuters, while JPMorgan Chase raised its probability from 30% at the year’s start to 40%.
The first category is consumer finances, the group that drives 69% of GDP. In the February 2025 Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Survey of Consumer Expectations, the credit access survey found that 46.7% of those surveyed expect it to be harder to obtain credit a year from now. That’s the highest level since June 2024.
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