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Three Indicators Suggest Growing Recession Risk

Deteriorating consumer finances, weaker corporate earnings, and challenges in the bond market.

By Erik Sherman | March 25, 2025 at 04:41 AM

There have been ongoing concerns and confusion about the future of the economy and, therefore, commercial real estate. Earlier talk of a likely soft landing has morphed into extensive uncertainty.

That has extended into three categories of market activities that suggest a growing possibility of a recession later this year. Not a promise and not necessarily a probability greater than 50%, but enough to be concerned. Moody’s Analytics told ABC News that it had raised the probability of a recession to 35%, Goldman Sachs increased its projection from 15% to 20%, according to Reuters, while JPMorgan Chase raised its probability from 30% at the year’s start to 40%.

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