The Trump administration’s tariffs and “shifting policy mix” creating market volatility will negatively affect the U.S. economy and the commercial real estate industry, according to S&P Global Ratings.
The firm expects real GDP growth to cool to 1.9% in 2025 and 2026, down from 2.9% in 2023 and 2.8% in 2024.
That is more upbeat than the median projections by the Federal Reserve Board members and Federal Reserve Bank presidents in March 2025. They expect 1.7% in 2025 and 1.8% in 2026, 2027, and the longer run. The range of individual estimates was from 1.5% to 1.9% in 2025, 1.6% to 1.9% in 2026, 1.6% to 2.0% in 2027, and 1.7% to 2.0% in the longer run.
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