Many industries, including CRE, feel the impact of tariff and trade strategies and policies. Sometimes, the changes are positive for operations and the bottom line; other times, they are not. But so long as the rules are clear and steady, companies can plan appropriately.
There is always some uncertainty, but the greatest issue for commercial real estate with the Trump administration’s tariff policies is the degree to which no one knows what exactly will happen or when. CommercialEdge says this is particularly true for the industrial sector.
The report says that new tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China—the U.S.' number one, two, and three trading partners that collectively account for more than 40% of imports here—will cause industrial occupiers to delay leasing decisions, construction costs to rise significantly, and uncertainty about the future of planned projects.
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The 10% additional tariff on goods from China has been in force since Trump’s announcement early in February. The 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada received some delays but are supposed to go into effect on Wednesday, April 2. Other countries are also levying tariffs on U.S. exports.
Now, to the uncertainty. The Economic Policy Uncertainty site, a joint project of researchers at the University of Chicago, Northwestern, and Stanford, has a series of Economic Policy Uncertainty Indexes, showing economic policy uncertainty for various countries. In February 2025, the U.S. index hit 334.51. Going back to 1985, that is the highest level outside the worst of the pandemic.
That uncertainty led to heavy imports as companies stockpiled inventories before the prices effectively rose due to the tariffs. North American transborder freight rose 8.2% year-over-year in January 2025, according to the Bureau of Transportation Statistics. CommercialEdge noted that the total number of containers coming into the 10 busiest U.S. ports was up 18% year-over-year.
Port activity might fall during the rest of the year because of quotas on many imports. However, the report notes that markets along the U.S.-Mexico border also face questions about the future of trade. With the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) scheduled for a joint review, renewal for a second 16-year period, and potential renegotiation, companies may hope that the result will be lower or eliminated tariffs.
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