During the 2025 NIC Spring Conference, the organization’s leadership offered their perspective on the fundamentals driving senior housing now and through at least the next few years.
The first is demand growth. The U.S. 80-plus population continues to expand as baby boomers age and more enter that category. "Demand is exploding," Arick Morton, chief executive officer, told GlobeSt.com last August. "It's the early foreshocks of what is going to be a demographic earthquake over the next 25 years, as the boomers age." In 2025, the first boomers turn 80, which is considered a starting age for people to begin needing senior housing. "It really explodes over the next few years.” However, it is unclear what services will be available.
To that last point, the second driver is the lack of product. With demand growing, there has also been a drop in the supply growth rate. As of last September, the current senior housing development pace indicates a 550,000-unit shortfall by 2030, representing a $275 billion investment shortage. The reduced additions to inventory can indicate an undesirable imbalance in the sector. The industry needs to find a way to meet the needs of the aging population as it grows.
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