A survey of 14 economists’ forecasts by CNBC suggests that GDP growth in the just-ended first quarter of 2025 would be only 0.3%, a huge slowdown from the end of 2024. The participants also thought that Core PCE inflation, the metric favored over CPI by the Federal Reserve, would stay around 2.9% for the rest of the year.
The forecasts come after falling consumer and business sentiment and weakening consumer spending, which represents 69% of GDP. Last Friday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis said that real consumer spending was up 0.1% in February after -0.6% in January.
Even worse, the GDPNow site of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, which attempts to be a running estimate of real GDP growth (adjusting for inflation), suggested that as of April 1, GDP was falling at a -3.7% rate.
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