RIVERSIDE, CA-A new forecast focused on the US, California, and the Riverside/San Bernardino region says the economy is not headed for another downturn, and that nationwide, growth will begin to accelerate in late 2011 and 2012. The forecast, authored by Beacon Economics and released in partnership with the University of California at Riverside’s School of Business Administration, expects the national and state economies to pick up speed faster than the hard-hit Riverside/San Bernardino region, but says the inland area is showing increased signs of stability.
“Year-over-year, the local labor market has grown slightly—up by 1% since this time last year—and employment is expected continue to climb steadily over the next five years,” according to the analysis. According to the forecast, there are important and promising indicators emerging in the Riverside/San Bernardino region, including consumers who are beginning to spend again. While taxable sales are still well below their 2007 peak, they have begun a healthy rebound, rising by 16.1% since hitting their low point in the second quarter of 2009—a trend that is expected to continue, says the analysis.
“The data simply does not support these hyped-up proclamations that we are headed for a double-dip recession,” says Beacon Economics’ founding partner Christopher Thornberg. “Digging out from the ‘Great Recession’ was never going to be easy, the economy is still way behind where it should be at this stage in the business cycle, but the recovery is underway, nationally and in Inland Southern California.”
Yunzeng Wang, interim dean of the School of Business Administration says that the region is destined to return to the growth path it was on prior to the downturn. “The significant traditional advantages Inland Southern California offers such as affordable housing, coupled with exciting new initiatives to expand our employment base into areas such as high tech will again make us one of California’s fastest-growing regions,” Wang says.
Other key findings from the forecast for the region include:
*Total incomes in the region have risen recently, surpassing the pre-recession peak and contributing to growth in consumer spending. Job growth in the coastal regions is contributing to the boost in inland incomes and this ‘spill-over’ effect is expected to accelerate in the future. Taken together, these trends have helped to stabilize the economy and will play large roles in fostering a recovery.
*Discouraging trends in housing prices, sales, and permits have begun to stabilize, and there will be moderate increases from the fourth quarter of 2011 to 2016.
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Natalie Dolce
Natalie Dolce, editor-in-chief of GlobeSt.com and GlobeSt. Real Estate Forum, is responsible for working with editorial staff, freelancers and senior management to help plan the overarching vision that encompasses GlobeSt.com, including short-term and long-term goals for the website, how content integrates through the company’s other product lines and the overall quality of content. Previously she served as national executive editor and editor of the West Coast region for GlobeSt.com and Real Estate Forum, and was responsible for coverage of news and information pertaining to that vital real estate region. Prior to moving out to the Southern California office, she was Northeast bureau chief, covering New York City for GlobeSt.com. Her background includes a stint at InStyle Magazine, and as managing editor with New York Press, an alternative weekly New York City paper. In her career, she has also covered a variety of beats for M magazine, Arthur Frommer's Budget Travel, FashionLedge.com, and Co-Ed magazine. Dolce has also freelanced for a number of publications, including MSNBC.com and Museums New York magazine.
