Photo of Spencer Levy

NEW YORK CITY—“Maybe one of the things New York City does best is to reinvent itself,” CBRE vice chairman Michael Geoghagen said Wednesday at the firm's quarterly media briefing on the New York market. Geoghagen and his CBRE colleagues—including vice chairmen Paul Amrich and Andrew Goldberg, among others—sounded the themes of renewal and newness throughout their discussions. Among other ways in which these themes were manifested, CBRE's experts noted the TAMI sector's prominence in an office market once dominated by financial firms, and the healthy fourth-quarter pre-leasing activity at projects such as Related Oxford's Hudson Yards and Brookfield's Manhattan West.

That's the case even when—as Nicole LaRusso, director, research & analysis, tri-state region, pointed out—deliveries of new product pushed up the availability rate in Manhattan's office submarkets. Overall, 2016 represented “a solid year” for Manhattan office, she said, although net absorption was below the 10-year average of 23.8 million square feet.

Amrich cited the advent of “mini-Midtowns,” including Hudson Yards and Manhattan West as well as the Meatpacking District, that have arisen across the island. These new enclaves re-create the live/work/play environment of Midtown on a more concentrated scale, often attracting significant office tenants to help underpin their appeal to younger workers.

And make no mistake, employee appeal and location go hand in hand for significant office tenants. Citing a recent CBRE study, Spencer Levy, Americas head of research, said the number one consideration for large occupiers is the availability of talent. It's an area in which the New York region has an edge over all others. “New York is extraordinarily well positioned over the long term, even with the encroachment of technology,” Levy said.

One way in which this dominance plays out is in the retail arena, with even vendors that operate primarily online finding it important to have a physical presence in the city. “Experiential is the wave of the future when it comes to retail in New York,” said Goldberg. He added, “New York is still going to be the beachhead for brands that want to be online.”

Providing a capital markets perspective was EVP Tom Traynor, who joined CBRE last year after 19 years with Deutsche Bank. He brought back observations from this year's CRE Finance Council January conference, held last week in Miami.

Three themes occurred repeatedly in discussions at the conference, he said: the challenges of the new risk retention rule governing CMBS transactions, concerns about the retail and hotel sectors and the current climate for construction/conversion loans. In the latter area, said Traynor, traditional banks have given way to “shadow banks,” including owner/developers who may be positioned to step in and take over a project if the need arises.

Photo of Spencer Levy

NEW YORK CITY—“Maybe one of the things New York City does best is to reinvent itself,” CBRE vice chairman Michael Geoghagen said Wednesday at the firm's quarterly media briefing on the New York market. Geoghagen and his CBRE colleagues—including vice chairmen Paul Amrich and Andrew Goldberg, among others—sounded the themes of renewal and newness throughout their discussions. Among other ways in which these themes were manifested, CBRE's experts noted the TAMI sector's prominence in an office market once dominated by financial firms, and the healthy fourth-quarter pre-leasing activity at projects such as Related Oxford's Hudson Yards and Brookfield's Manhattan West.

That's the case even when—as Nicole LaRusso, director, research & analysis, tri-state region, pointed out—deliveries of new product pushed up the availability rate in Manhattan's office submarkets. Overall, 2016 represented “a solid year” for Manhattan office, she said, although net absorption was below the 10-year average of 23.8 million square feet.

Amrich cited the advent of “mini-Midtowns,” including Hudson Yards and Manhattan West as well as the Meatpacking District, that have arisen across the island. These new enclaves re-create the live/work/play environment of Midtown on a more concentrated scale, often attracting significant office tenants to help underpin their appeal to younger workers.

And make no mistake, employee appeal and location go hand in hand for significant office tenants. Citing a recent CBRE study, Spencer Levy, Americas head of research, said the number one consideration for large occupiers is the availability of talent. It's an area in which the New York region has an edge over all others. “New York is extraordinarily well positioned over the long term, even with the encroachment of technology,” Levy said.

One way in which this dominance plays out is in the retail arena, with even vendors that operate primarily online finding it important to have a physical presence in the city. “Experiential is the wave of the future when it comes to retail in New York,” said Goldberg. He added, “New York is still going to be the beachhead for brands that want to be online.”

Providing a capital markets perspective was EVP Tom Traynor, who joined CBRE last year after 19 years with Deutsche Bank. He brought back observations from this year's CRE Finance Council January conference, held last week in Miami.

Three themes occurred repeatedly in discussions at the conference, he said: the challenges of the new risk retention rule governing CMBS transactions, concerns about the retail and hotel sectors and the current climate for construction/conversion loans. In the latter area, said Traynor, traditional banks have given way to “shadow banks,” including owner/developers who may be positioned to step in and take over a project if the need arises.

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Paul Bubny

Paul Bubny is managing editor of Real Estate Forum and GlobeSt.com. He has been reporting on business since 1988 and on commercial real estate since 2007. He is based at ALM Real Estate Media Group's offices in New York City.

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