SAN DIEGO—“Before the election, the biggest economic fear was that a recession was right around the corner, but now we feel it has been pushed out.” That was according to Jeanette Rice, Americas head of multifamily research at CBRE, who recently served on the economics panel at the 2017 NMHC Apartment Strategies Outlook Conference. “There is still a recession out there, but it will be mild.”
According to Rice, we should expect, and should experience, slightly greater growth in 2017 than we did in 2016. “A recession is at least pushed out to 2019, so 2018 should also be moderate growth.”
The panel reviewed overall apartment market fundamentals as well as the broader US economy and discussed potential impacts to the apartment industry in the coming year. One of the challenges Rice pointed to was that we are almost at full employment, so that growth won't be as significant.
When moderator Mark Obrinsky, SVP of research and chief economist at NMHC, asked Jeff Adler, VP of Yardi Matrix, about 2017 in terms of growth, he said that we have seen monetary policy go as far as it could logically go. “With the change in administrations and the possibility in pro growth fiscal policies out there, it extends the cycle a few more years.”
Another aspect to the new administration, agreed Rice, is that it will take time for economic changes and policy to take effect. But she did point to a few caveats.
“I worry about trade policy…We are an economy built on globalization and protectionism is important but we don't know yet what can be done, how quickly it can be done, but it seems like the US wants to play hard ball to get a better deal in place.”
She also pointed to immigration being a worry. “Immigration is a life blood for the economy and certainly for our market… It is really important for most of our industries.”
Adler said that there are many structural things that need to be addressed. But he also said that it will take a while. One of those things was about safety and security in urban environments.
According to Obrinsky, what he is certain about is that there has never been a year in while where he has been less certain about what might happen out of Washington. “The range of possibilities is larger than anything we have been accustomed to than in the past.”
Responding to that, Adler said that “you can't run your business hostage to what might happen in 24 months…you just have to run your business.”
Check back with GlobeSt.com in the next day or so for more from this panel and more out of the NMHC event.
Several economic factors have resulted in net positives for the multifamily sector and prices in core markets are at an all-time high. But just how long can the market continue on this trajectory? Join us at RealShare Apartments East on Feb. 28 and March 1 for insights on succeeding in the right markets as well as navigating and finding opportunities in the more challenging ones. Learn more.
SAN DIEGO—“Before the election, the biggest economic fear was that a recession was right around the corner, but now we feel it has been pushed out.” That was according to Jeanette Rice, Americas head of multifamily research at CBRE, who recently served on the economics panel at the 2017 NMHC Apartment Strategies Outlook Conference. “There is still a recession out there, but it will be mild.”
According to Rice, we should expect, and should experience, slightly greater growth in 2017 than we did in 2016. “A recession is at least pushed out to 2019, so 2018 should also be moderate growth.”
The panel reviewed overall apartment market fundamentals as well as the broader US economy and discussed potential impacts to the apartment industry in the coming year. One of the challenges Rice pointed to was that we are almost at full employment, so that growth won't be as significant.
When moderator Mark Obrinsky, SVP of research and chief economist at NMHC, asked Jeff Adler, VP of Yardi Matrix, about 2017 in terms of growth, he said that we have seen monetary policy go as far as it could logically go. “With the change in administrations and the possibility in pro growth fiscal policies out there, it extends the cycle a few more years.”
Another aspect to the new administration, agreed Rice, is that it will take time for economic changes and policy to take effect. But she did point to a few caveats.
“I worry about trade policy…We are an economy built on globalization and protectionism is important but we don't know yet what can be done, how quickly it can be done, but it seems like the US wants to play hard ball to get a better deal in place.”
She also pointed to immigration being a worry. “Immigration is a life blood for the economy and certainly for our market… It is really important for most of our industries.”
Adler said that there are many structural things that need to be addressed. But he also said that it will take a while. One of those things was about safety and security in urban environments.
According to Obrinsky, what he is certain about is that there has never been a year in while where he has been less certain about what might happen out of Washington. “The range of possibilities is larger than anything we have been accustomed to than in the past.”
Responding to that, Adler said that “you can't run your business hostage to what might happen in 24 months…you just have to run your business.”
Check back with GlobeSt.com in the next day or so for more from this panel and more out of the NMHC event.
Several economic factors have resulted in net positives for the multifamily sector and prices in core markets are at an all-time high. But just how long can the market continue on this trajectory? Join us at RealShare Apartments East on Feb. 28 and March 1 for insights on succeeding in the right markets as well as navigating and finding opportunities in the more challenging ones. Learn more.
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Natalie Dolce
Natalie Dolce, editor-in-chief of GlobeSt.com and GlobeSt. Real Estate Forum, is responsible for working with editorial staff, freelancers and senior management to help plan the overarching vision that encompasses GlobeSt.com, including short-term and long-term goals for the website, how content integrates through the company’s other product lines and the overall quality of content. Previously she served as national executive editor and editor of the West Coast region for GlobeSt.com and Real Estate Forum, and was responsible for coverage of news and information pertaining to that vital real estate region. Prior to moving out to the Southern California office, she was Northeast bureau chief, covering New York City for GlobeSt.com. Her background includes a stint at InStyle Magazine, and as managing editor with New York Press, an alternative weekly New York City paper. In her career, she has also covered a variety of beats for M magazine, Arthur Frommer's Budget Travel, FashionLedge.com, and Co-Ed magazine. Dolce has also freelanced for a number of publications, including MSNBC.com and Museums New York magazine.
