SAN DIEGO—“Growth will remain relatively low but critically will be stable.” Those thoughts are according to Mohamed A. El-Erian, chief economic advisor at Allianz, and former CEO and co-CIO of PIMCO. “The US will grow at 2% to 2.5%. Japan will be in the 1% to 1.5% range and China will be at 5% to 6%.”
El-Erian, who spoke during the “What's Ahead in the Global Economy” general session at MBA's CREF/Multifamily Housing Convention and Expo 2017, said that the global economy is stable and that is the first element the markets love.
“Central banks have been critical to allow you to continue doing what you are doing,” he said. “They help to make sure market instability doesn't derail the economy.”
He explained that the group of central banks will be willing and able to repress finance volatility so markets continue towards growth rather than retract from growth. “Politics will remain noisy but will not fundamentally contaminate central banks.”
El-Erian said that the anti-establishment movements will not go away and will continue to make the political debate noisy. “Fundamentally though, they won't impact central banks and won't derail the markets.”
He added that “We are in a place that is a low but stable equilibrium that allows balance sheets to continue to recover. Baseline is that things will be a little bit better than last year and the balance of risk is to the upside.”
And it is good news, he explained. “It implies an orderly evolution. It will continue to encourage an internal rotation towards the financial sector. The Fed will be able to slowly normalize rates without disrupting the finance markets.”
Keep checking back with GlobeSt.com this week for more coverage from the MBA's CREF/Multifamily Housing Convention and Expo 2017.
SAN DIEGO—“Growth will remain relatively low but critically will be stable.” Those thoughts are according to Mohamed A. El-Erian, chief economic advisor at Allianz, and former CEO and co-CIO of PIMCO. “The US will grow at 2% to 2.5%. Japan will be in the 1% to 1.5% range and China will be at 5% to 6%.”
El-Erian, who spoke during the “What's Ahead in the Global Economy” general session at MBA's CREF/Multifamily Housing Convention and Expo 2017, said that the global economy is stable and that is the first element the markets love.
“Central banks have been critical to allow you to continue doing what you are doing,” he said. “They help to make sure market instability doesn't derail the economy.”
He explained that the group of central banks will be willing and able to repress finance volatility so markets continue towards growth rather than retract from growth. “Politics will remain noisy but will not fundamentally contaminate central banks.”
El-Erian said that the anti-establishment movements will not go away and will continue to make the political debate noisy. “Fundamentally though, they won't impact central banks and won't derail the markets.”
He added that “We are in a place that is a low but stable equilibrium that allows balance sheets to continue to recover. Baseline is that things will be a little bit better than last year and the balance of risk is to the upside.”
And it is good news, he explained. “It implies an orderly evolution. It will continue to encourage an internal rotation towards the financial sector. The Fed will be able to slowly normalize rates without disrupting the finance markets.”
Keep checking back with GlobeSt.com this week for more coverage from the MBA's CREF/Multifamily Housing Convention and Expo 2017.
Continue Reading for Free
Register and gain access to:
- Breaking commercial real estate news and analysis, on-site and via our newsletters and custom alerts
- Educational webcasts, white papers, and ebooks from industry thought leaders
- Critical coverage of the property casualty insurance and financial advisory markets on our other ALM sites, PropertyCasualty360 and ThinkAdvisor
Already have an account? Sign In Now
© 2024 ALM Global, LLC, All Rights Reserved. Request academic re-use from www.copyright.com. All other uses, submit a request to [email protected]. For more information visit Asset & Logo Licensing.