LAS VEGAS—In the first quarter of 2017, US retail transaction volumes reached more than $16 billion, which is a slight 4.9% decline over last year, according to preliminary figures released by JLL at ICSC RECon in Las Vegas. But despite the dip, JLL expects a strong pipeline of transactions to grow and continue to stabilize this year.
GlobeSt.com was in attendance on Monday night at JLL's networking party. And we learned that going into this year, JLL expects its investor clients selling a significant amount of product. But in January, according to the firm's Margaret Caldwell, managing director, investors cut back on their expectations and become more selective about pruning their portfolios. “Since March, we've seen more retail assets hit the market and willing buyers if the location and price are right.”
Below are the firm's retail investment basics:
Who's selling: REITs continue to sell non-strategic assets, increasing disposition volume by 5.4 percent quarter-over-quarter. Some institutional and private owners are selling primarily assets in secondary and tertiary markets.
Who's buying: Most active buyers are private investors looking for opportunistic and value-add assets. We are also seeing more developers purchasing existing assets where there are opportunities to reposition the property and achieve higher yields in comparison to new developments.
What's trading: Single asset transactions under $100 million reached $2.8 billion year-to-date, increasing overall this cycle from last as investors move away from riskier portfolio transactions. With buyers drawn to low-risk investments at the start of 2017, grocery-anchored shopping center transaction volume swelled 110% year-over-year, with $1.6 billion of product trading due to its stability and liquidity.
Where: Transaction volumes into tertiary markets rose 54.2% over last year, as buyers are having a hard time finding quality product in primary and secondary markets due to cap rate compression. Primary market cap rates compressed 20 basis points to a low 4.3 percent, and 30 basis points to 4.6% in secondary markets. Primary and secondary transaction volumes still make-up 64% of total investment.
According to the firm's Naveen Jaggi, president of retail brokerage and capital markets, “Overall, we'll continue to see owners of well-performing properties keeping a tight hold on their assets and buyers becoming more stringent with their requirements. I expect that we'll see more trades at the tail end of this year, especially for hidden gems in tertiary markets, such as stable grocery-anchored centers, well-positioned power centers or even malls with little competition.”
Jaggi tells GlobeSt.com that he is “extremely bullish on the overall health of the retail sector and on any retailer who takes a long-term view of their business by investing in a holistic offering that combines product with experience.” He adds that “As the touch-points with the consumer continue to multiply, the integration across all channels will be key – but at the center of it all will remain a core brick-and-mortar business.”
JLL also recently came out with a report about the 10 affordable locations for retail stores based on average asking rent per square foot. In its inaugural City Retail report, the firm notes that these shopping districts have growing populations of working millennials, rising foodie scenes, and trendy mixes of up-and-coming retailers and well-known brands. These factors combine to create affordability and stability – the ideal scenario for retailers and investors that want to expand.
“In retail, store location is everything—pick the wrong corner and your brilliant concept can fail,” said Jaggi. “We know that sometimes retailers want that prime main-and-main location, but just don't have the budget. So, we looked at core US cities to find more affordable areas for retailer expansion.”
According to JLL, prime rents in these 10 corridors are the most affordable on a per-square-foot basis:
Market East, Philadelphia: Once home to vacant lots and failed fortress malls, Market East now attracts large-format retailers looking to tap into the swelling millennial and empty-nester population. Market East's average asking prime retail rent is $50 per square foot, with annual rent growth of 25%.
Wicker Park, Chicago: This edgy, off-the-beaten path foodie destination is seeing an uptick in residential development, piquing international investor and retailer interest. Wicker Park's average asking prime retail rent is $55 per square foot, with annual rent growth of 4.5%. \
Pike Street, Seattle: Filled with a stable collection of apparel and restaurants, Pike Street serves Seattle's CBD and is expanding east toward Capitol Hill with new restaurants. Pike Street's average asking prime retail rent is $65 per square foot, with annual rent growth of 18.2%.
Fulton Market, Chicago: Once a hub for industrial and meat distribution, Fulton Market in the West Loop submarket is known for its killer restaurant scene, but is now garnering attention from apparel retailers and investors as it becomes a growth market for corporate headquarters. Average asking prime retail rent is $75 per square foot, with annual rent growth of 8.9%.
The Marina, San Francisco: This corridor has seen a spike of athleisure and boutique fitness studios, adding to its long-standing assortment of neighborhood retail and restaurants. The average asking prime retail rent is $85 per square foot, with annual rent growth of 7.7%.
University Avenue, Silicon Valley: Palo Alto's tech boom is creating a retail sea change with more non-chain boutiques and home goods stores moving in to University Avenue. The average asking prime retail rent is $90 per square foot, with annual rent growth of 7.9%.
Hayes Valley, San Francisco: Opportunities for investment and new storefronts in Hayes Valley is shrinking as housing values increase and entertainment venues play host to tourists. The average prime asking retail rent is $90 per square foot, with annual rent growth of 4.7%.
Design District, Miami: Textile and furniture factories once lined the Design District, which is now a curated assortment of luxury retailers, art galleries and restaurants. Phase II of development will add 60 new tenants to the market. The average prime asking retail rent is $95 per square foot, with annual rent growth of 2.2%.
Metro Center, Washington, DC: Well positioned between the White House and Chinatown, Metro Center is where people go to shop at well-known brands and discount retailers. The average asking prime retail rent is $100 per square foot, with annual rent growth remaining flat.
Fillmore, San Francisco: It's been eight years since the transformation of the Fillmore corridor started, and today luxury lite retailers are dominating the retail scene. The average asking prime retail rent is $115 per square foot, with annual rent growth of 13.6%.
JLL also points out that prime urban retail corridors are the new high streets. Shopping districts now stretch beyond a linear street, creating corridors with mixes of brands, restaurants and entertainment, says JLL.
“Some of these corridors are existing and established, with a large concentration of high-credit tenants like Upper 5th Avenue, the Beverly Hills Triangle or Michigan Avenue. Others are emerging, with tenants of varying credit profiles and mixes of local retailers and restaurants like the cities indicated in our top 10 list. We expect the value of real estate in these select corridors to rise over the long-term, and retailers to remain vigilant in their expansions. But, as competition rises and consumer buying habits shift, retailers will search for opportunities to get more bang for their buck,” said James Cook, director of retail research at JLL.
Check back with GlobeSt.com in the next day or so for more from our chat with Jaggi as well as quotes and forecasts on trends in the retail market from Greg Maloney, CEO of retail at JLL and Matt Powers, president of retail and the e-commerce distribution group.
LAS VEGAS—In the first quarter of 2017, US retail transaction volumes reached more than $16 billion, which is a slight 4.9% decline over last year, according to preliminary figures released by JLL at ICSC RECon in Las Vegas. But despite the dip, JLL expects a strong pipeline of transactions to grow and continue to stabilize this year.
GlobeSt.com was in attendance on Monday night at JLL's networking party. And we learned that going into this year, JLL expects its investor clients selling a significant amount of product. But in January, according to the firm's Margaret Caldwell, managing director, investors cut back on their expectations and become more selective about pruning their portfolios. “Since March, we've seen more retail assets hit the market and willing buyers if the location and price are right.”
Below are the firm's retail investment basics:
Who's selling: REITs continue to sell non-strategic assets, increasing disposition volume by 5.4 percent quarter-over-quarter. Some institutional and private owners are selling primarily assets in secondary and tertiary markets.
Who's buying: Most active buyers are private investors looking for opportunistic and value-add assets. We are also seeing more developers purchasing existing assets where there are opportunities to reposition the property and achieve higher yields in comparison to new developments.
What's trading: Single asset transactions under $100 million reached $2.8 billion year-to-date, increasing overall this cycle from last as investors move away from riskier portfolio transactions. With buyers drawn to low-risk investments at the start of 2017, grocery-anchored shopping center transaction volume swelled 110% year-over-year, with $1.6 billion of product trading due to its stability and liquidity.
Where: Transaction volumes into tertiary markets rose 54.2% over last year, as buyers are having a hard time finding quality product in primary and secondary markets due to cap rate compression. Primary market cap rates compressed 20 basis points to a low 4.3 percent, and 30 basis points to 4.6% in secondary markets. Primary and secondary transaction volumes still make-up 64% of total investment.
According to the firm's Naveen Jaggi, president of retail brokerage and capital markets, “Overall, we'll continue to see owners of well-performing properties keeping a tight hold on their assets and buyers becoming more stringent with their requirements. I expect that we'll see more trades at the tail end of this year, especially for hidden gems in tertiary markets, such as stable grocery-anchored centers, well-positioned power centers or even malls with little competition.”
Jaggi tells GlobeSt.com that he is “extremely bullish on the overall health of the retail sector and on any retailer who takes a long-term view of their business by investing in a holistic offering that combines product with experience.” He adds that “As the touch-points with the consumer continue to multiply, the integration across all channels will be key – but at the center of it all will remain a core brick-and-mortar business.”
JLL also recently came out with a report about the 10 affordable locations for retail stores based on average asking rent per square foot. In its inaugural City Retail report, the firm notes that these shopping districts have growing populations of working millennials, rising foodie scenes, and trendy mixes of up-and-coming retailers and well-known brands. These factors combine to create affordability and stability – the ideal scenario for retailers and investors that want to expand.
“In retail, store location is everything—pick the wrong corner and your brilliant concept can fail,” said Jaggi. “We know that sometimes retailers want that prime main-and-main location, but just don't have the budget. So, we looked at core US cities to find more affordable areas for retailer expansion.”
According to JLL, prime rents in these 10 corridors are the most affordable on a per-square-foot basis:
Market East, Philadelphia: Once home to vacant lots and failed fortress malls, Market East now attracts large-format retailers looking to tap into the swelling millennial and empty-nester population. Market East's average asking prime retail rent is $50 per square foot, with annual rent growth of 25%.
Wicker Park, Chicago: This edgy, off-the-beaten path foodie destination is seeing an uptick in residential development, piquing international investor and retailer interest. Wicker Park's average asking prime retail rent is $55 per square foot, with annual rent growth of 4.5%. \
Pike Street, Seattle: Filled with a stable collection of apparel and restaurants, Pike Street serves Seattle's CBD and is expanding east toward Capitol Hill with new restaurants. Pike Street's average asking prime retail rent is $65 per square foot, with annual rent growth of 18.2%.
Fulton Market, Chicago: Once a hub for industrial and meat distribution, Fulton Market in the West Loop submarket is known for its killer restaurant scene, but is now garnering attention from apparel retailers and investors as it becomes a growth market for corporate headquarters. Average asking prime retail rent is $75 per square foot, with annual rent growth of 8.9%.
The Marina, San Francisco: This corridor has seen a spike of athleisure and boutique fitness studios, adding to its long-standing assortment of neighborhood retail and restaurants. The average asking prime retail rent is $85 per square foot, with annual rent growth of 7.7%.
University Avenue, Silicon Valley: Palo Alto's tech boom is creating a retail sea change with more non-chain boutiques and home goods stores moving in to University Avenue. The average asking prime retail rent is $90 per square foot, with annual rent growth of 7.9%.
Hayes Valley, San Francisco: Opportunities for investment and new storefronts in Hayes Valley is shrinking as housing values increase and entertainment venues play host to tourists. The average prime asking retail rent is $90 per square foot, with annual rent growth of 4.7%.
Design District, Miami: Textile and furniture factories once lined the Design District, which is now a curated assortment of luxury retailers, art galleries and restaurants. Phase II of development will add 60 new tenants to the market. The average prime asking retail rent is $95 per square foot, with annual rent growth of 2.2%.
Metro Center, Washington, DC: Well positioned between the White House and Chinatown, Metro Center is where people go to shop at well-known brands and discount retailers. The average asking prime retail rent is $100 per square foot, with annual rent growth remaining flat.
Fillmore, San Francisco: It's been eight years since the transformation of the Fillmore corridor started, and today luxury lite retailers are dominating the retail scene. The average asking prime retail rent is $115 per square foot, with annual rent growth of 13.6%.
JLL also points out that prime urban retail corridors are the new high streets. Shopping districts now stretch beyond a linear street, creating corridors with mixes of brands, restaurants and entertainment, says JLL.
“Some of these corridors are existing and established, with a large concentration of high-credit tenants like Upper 5th Avenue, the Beverly Hills Triangle or Michigan Avenue. Others are emerging, with tenants of varying credit profiles and mixes of local retailers and restaurants like the cities indicated in our top 10 list. We expect the value of real estate in these select corridors to rise over the long-term, and retailers to remain vigilant in their expansions. But, as competition rises and consumer buying habits shift, retailers will search for opportunities to get more bang for their buck,” said James Cook, director of retail research at JLL.
Check back with GlobeSt.com in the next day or so for more from our chat with Jaggi as well as quotes and forecasts on trends in the retail market from Greg Maloney, CEO of retail at JLL and Matt Powers, president of retail and the e-commerce distribution group.
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