SAN DIEGO—“There is a strong mix of both headwinds and tailwinds in the commercial real estate finance markets right now,” says Jamie Woodwell, VP of commercial real estate research at the Mortgage Bankers Association. Accordingly, for commercial and multifamily mortgage borrowing and lending, “the net effect is likely to be close to a wash.”

MBA is projecting a 3% decline in total commercial and multifamily mortgage originations this year to $549 billion, with 2019 likely to end with a similar total. To put that figure into perspective, MBA's preliminary numbers for 2017 originations, released at the association's annual CREF/Multifamily Housing Convention & Expo running here through Wednesday, point to a record-breaking year with a 15% annual increase from 2016.

One factor of many suggesting a slight year-over-year decline in volume is a big drop in maturities. MBA's latest Commercial Real Estate/Multifamily Survey of Loan Maturity Volumes finds that 6%, or $102.2 billion, of the $1.8 trillion outstanding commercial and multifamily mortgages held by non-bank lenders and investors will mature in 2018. That compares to the $175.9 billion that matured in the past year.