“The strong market has also meant that many loans that were slotted to mature in coming years have already been refinanced, with maturities pushed further out,” he continues. “As a result, commercial and multifamily mortgage maturities will slowly climb over the coming years.” Based on unpaid principal balances as of this past December, percentages of total commercial/multifamily mortgage debt outstanding that will come due this year range from a low of 2% for the GSEs to a high of 22% for debt held by credit companies and other investors.

Rising interest rates, slowing NOI growth, pressure on capitalization rates and fewer loan maturities are some of the factors that keep origination volumes down this year, says Woodwell. “At the same time, continued economic growth, large amounts of investment capital looking for a home—and liking the looks of commercial real estate—and the recent tax reform legislation may all push the transaction markets forward. The magnitude and opposing impacts of some of these changes, however, raises the level of uncertainty.”

MBA forecasts mortgage banker originations of just multifamily mortgages at $248 billion in '18, with total multifamily lending at $271 billion. Similar to the outlook for CRE debt generally, multifamily lending is expected to hold roughly steady next year as well. In comparison, MBA's preliminary figures for '17 show a 17% Y-O-Y increase in multifamily lending, second only to industrial's 22% annual increase.

Judging by the MBA CREF Outlook Survey, released last month, the association's members are slightly more bullish on the outlook for the year. Fifty-six percent said they expect total originations to rise between 0% and 5% in '18, with another 17% forecasting an increase between 5% and 10%. Just 11% expect total volume to decline, although an equal percentage anticipate the market to be flat with '17 levels.

Check back this week on GlobeSt.com for onsite coverage of MBA CREF/Multifamily Housing Convention & Expo.