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The property values are less than the loan balances and one-third may encounter cash flow problems and refinancing challenges.
Investors might get overly enthusiastic and push property prices up again, only without the likely ability to raise rents enough.
DC now has a 72% share at risk, while San Francisco has a 71.%.
As of Q3, here's what data from Northmarq shows so far.
Commercial mortgage originations 'fell dramatically' in Q3 compared to pre-Covid times.
They find the opportunity for good deals 'amongst the best we've ever seen."
All bets are potentially off, and you have to consider exactly what could happen.
The 2023 annual report said banks hold about half of $6 trillion in commercial real estate loans with signs of stress having emerged.
Jeffrey Gundlach, a billionaire bond trader, called the 10-year's drop below 4% a 'fire alarm.'
Tech is a tool, but it doesn't automatically improve your business.